TIME SERIES FORECASTING BY THE ARIMA METHOD
Journal Title: Scientific Journal of Astana IT University - Year 2022, Vol 11, Issue 11
Abstract
The variety of communication services and the growing number of different sensors with the appearance of IoT (Internet of Things) technology generate significantly different types of network traffic. This implies that the structure of network traffic will be heterogeneous, which requires deep analysis to find the internal features underlying the data. A common model for analyzing the processes of a multiservice network is a model based on time series. Numerous empirical data studies indicate that the packet intensity time series do not belong to the general aggregates of a normal distribution. The problem of predicting network traffic is still relevant due to managing information that flows into a heterogeneous network. In this work, the authors studied the time series for stationarity in order to select an appropriate forecasting model. A visual assessment of the series assumed non-stationarity. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test is applied, and the measured network traffic is predicted using the ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) statistical method. Results were obtained using the Econometric Modeler Matlab (R2021b) application. The results of the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial ACF are analyzed, with the help of which the ARIMA model is optimized. As a result of the study, a software algorithm for the ARIMA (0,2,1) model was developed.
Authors and Affiliations
Gulnara Bektemyssova, Abdul Rahim Bin Ahmad, Sharafat Mirzakulova, Zhanar Ibraeva
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP712457
- DOI 10.37943/HFCH4395
- Views 68
- Downloads 0
DEVICE FOR DETERMINING THE VALUE OF THE STEADY-STATE ELECTRICITY IN THE PRIMARY CIRCUIT USING A REED SWITCH AND A MICROPROCESSOR
This article discusses an innovative device designed to determine the value of the steady-state current in the primary circuit of electrical installations using reed switches and a microprocessor without the use of cur...
BLOCKCHAIN AS DATA PROTECTION IN FINANCE
Five years ago, it would have been difficult to describe Kazakhstan’s economy as highly digitized. However, the country is currently implementing state programs aimed at improving the socio-economic conditions of its cit...
THE SYSTEM RECOGNIZES SURFACE DEFECTS OF MARBLE SLABS BASED ON SEGMENTATION METHODS
A system for recognizing surface defects in marble slabs is proposed. The pattern recognition method based on segmentation methods was further developed. The algorithm of the recognition system. The article describes m...
DEVELOPMENT OF A METHOD FOR COMBINING DATA IN ORDER TO PREVENT DUPLICATION OF RECORDS IN THE DATABASE OF THE INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF METHODOLOGICAL COMPETENCE OF TEACHERS OF IT DISCIPLINES
The article assesses the outcomes of digitization on higher education in Kazakhstan. Given current trends, there is a need to establish a dedicated focus on the ongoing professional growth of educators. A crucial measure...
FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEMS BASE ON POLYNOMIAL CONSEQUENTS OF FUZZY RULES
Various fuzzy inference systems that operate on the basis of polynomial consequents of fuzzy rules. As well as inference methods for such systems, in particular, Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy inference systems, their differences...