TÜRKİYE’DE KENTLEŞME VE İKTİSADİ BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİNİN ZAMANLA DEĞİŞEN NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ YÖNTEMİYLE İNCELENMESİ
Journal Title: JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy - Year 2017, Vol 2, Issue 2
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between the share of the urban population in the total population and per capita GDP in Turkey. For this purpose, the annual data for the period of 1961-2015 of Turkey is used. After the Johansen Cointegration Analysis that conducted to determine the variables' stationarity tests and the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables, long and short-term Granger causality analysis was examined. Finally, a time-varying causality analysis was conducted to determine the causality periods between variables. As a result of the analysis in the study, it was found that there were no long-term relationships between the variables but two way causality relations between the variables according to the Granger causality analysis through VAR method. Time-varying causality analysis has shown that, unlike traditional methods, the relationships between variables may be changed over time. 1983-1998 and 2000-2015 periods, it was seen that there was causality from urbanization to growth. This development may be influenced by the acceleration of urbanization through the effects of industrialization, tourism development and terrorist events in the post-1980 period. Moreover, the periods of causality from growth towards urbanization show that economic growth can be more effective in growth and urbanization of the settlements from period to period by increasing division of labor, export and employmen
Authors and Affiliations
Meriç SUBAŞI ERTEKİN, Mustafa KIRCA
Keywords
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