Use of the method of the stochastic trend for NAIRU estimation in the Czech Republic and Slovakia at the macro- and meso-levels
Journal Title: Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja - Year 2017, Vol 30, Issue 1
Abstract
The article provides an analysis of the development of NAIRU and the economic cycle in the labour market at the level of the economy and in selected sectors in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The analysis focuses on estimation of the time-varying NAIRU with the use of the method of the stochastic trend. The difference between the estimated NAIRU values and the real unemployment rates is used for characterisation of the economic cycle in the labour market. The estimated phases of the cycle are compared with the development of the basic real economy indicators. Unstable periods on the labour market in the economy and in selected sectors of the two countries are localised. The identified leading indicators are used for prediction of the development in the following period.
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