Using Arima Time Series Model in Forecasting the Trend of Changes in Qualitative Parameters of Sefidrud River
Journal Title: International Research Journal of Applied and Basic Sciences - Year 2014, Vol 8, Issue 3
Abstract
Sefidrud River is considered as the biggest river in northern Iran which is undergoing many changes due to increased water needs in agricultural, industrial and other sectors as well as increased pollution compiled by such consumptions. In this paper, ARIMA Model (2.0.0) was used to forecast the trend of changes in TSS, DO and NO3 parameters of two stations of Sefidrud River in Astaneh and Manjilin statistical year of 2010 separately at each station. The regression coefficient of actual and fitted values for each parameter were 85%, 74% and 75% in Astaneh station and 78%, 80% and 82% in Manjil station, respectively.To test the forecasting conducted, we also used the data of year 2011 for Astaneh station and data of year 2012 for Manjil station, which emphasized on good and relatively good performance of the presented model.
Authors and Affiliations
Mina Ranjbar| MA Graduate in the field of Environmental Pollutions, Islamic Azad University, Tonekabon Branch, email: Ranjbarm1982@yahoo.com, Mohammadreza Khaledian| Faculty Member of Irregation Education Dept., University of Guilan, E-mail: mkh572000@yahoo.com
Keywords
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