Using International Ranks and Business Activity Indicators for Economic Development Forecasting
Journal Title: Статистика України - Year 2018, Vol 83, Issue 4
Abstract
The majority of countries use several well-known integral indicators for economic forecasting purposes, on which basis these countries’ ranks in the global economic community are computed. Apart from allowing investors to make investment decisions, such indicators and ranks help in forecasting economic development in forthcoming periods. The best known of them is Ease of Doing Business Index and Global Competitiveness Index. The less known ones are indicators of Business Tendency Surveys (BTS), computed on the basis of data obtained from questionings of enterprise managers in various economic sectors and from studies of consumer sentiments. Yet, specialists tend to use the data from these conjuncture surveys to analyze the current economic situation in a country (total or by industry) and build short-term forecasts. Apart from the survey indicators depicting quite clearly a situation in the economy, the most popular ones in Europe are Confidence Indicators for enterprises by economic activity, and Economic Sentiment Indicator incorporating the indicators from BTS of enterprises and consumer sentiments. These indicators are computed by the European Commission for EU member countries on monthly basis. The article shows changes in Doing Business ranks for selected EU member countries and Ukraine. BTS indicators for industrial enterprises (estimate of production capacities; estimate of change in the production orders; estimate of the competitive position of enterprises at the internal market) are analyzed for some of these countries. A comparison of the dynamics of production capacities utilization, business confidence indicators and Doing Business rank is made for Ukraine and Bulgaria. The prognosticating capacities of BTS indicators compared with Doing Business indicator are analyzed.
Authors and Affiliations
M. V. Puhachova
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP564011
- DOI 10.31767/su.4(83)2018.04.04
- Views 138
- Downloads 0
Unpaid Care Work in the Republic of Belarus: Structure Analysis and Methods of Macroeconomic Assessment
Achieving gender equality is important for sustainable socio-economic development of the country. The significance of this problem is also reflected in the Sustainable Development Goals, namely, achieve gender equality (...
Statistics and Economy of Fish Farming in Ukraine
Pisciculture of Ukraine, according to the head of the State Agency of Fisheries, is being reformed. At the same time, it is estimated that 60-70% of the fish industry is “in the shade”. Therefore, reliable information is...
Изучение рабочей силы в профессионально-квалификационном разрезе: опыт США
Рассмотрен американский опыт изучения рабочей силы в профессиональном разрезе. Выполнено сравнение содержания нормативных документов, касающихся классификации профессий в США и Украине. Для обеих стран проанализировано и...
Синергетичний підхід як методологічна основа системи професійної освіти
Проаналізовано визначення терміна “синергетика” окремими вітчизняними й зарубіжними науковцями. Зазначено, що синергетика як науковий напрям займається вивченням нелінійних процесів у складних (у багатьох випадках - само...
Комплексна статистична оцінка економічного зростання та матеріального добробуту населення регіонів України
Запропонована методика комплексної статистичної оцінки економічного зростання та матеріального добробуту населення регіонів України на основі методу комплексних статистичних коефіцієнтів і виконано розрахунки за даними 2...