Using VARX model to forecast the effect of cultivation of main crops on water security in Saudi Arabia
Journal Title: Journal of Experimental Biology and Agricultural Sciences - Year 2017, Vol 5, Issue 0
Abstract
Augmented vector autoregressive model was applied to analyze the dynamic relationship between three-time series which includes the areas cultivated with dates, clover and fodder in Saudi Arabia. The application study relied on time series data from 1986 to 2013. The unit root test indicated that the areas cultivated with the three crops are stationary at the first differences. Information criteria showed the optimal lag and according to results of Wald test, the model can be used. The implementation of resolution No. 335 and the linear trend has significant effect on the first difference of the areas cultivated with clover as well as cultivated with fodder. Model was used for forecasting the areas from 2014 to 2018, and noted that the areas cultivated with dates will annually increase with rate 0.3% and the expected mean of water consumption is 2837.6 million m3 annually, the areas cultivated with clover will annually decrease with rate 1.6% and the expected mean of water consumption is 3708.4 million m3 annually, and the areas cultivated with fodder will annually decrease with rate 15% and the expected mean of water consumption is 3999.6 million m3 annually.
Authors and Affiliations
Othman S. Alnashwan, Mahmoud M. Alderiny
Keywords
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- EP ID EP428010
- DOI 10.18006/2017.5(Spl-1-SAFSAW).S126.S135
- Views 48
- Downloads 0
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