Variance Analysis in the Risk Assessments Based on the Alternative Methods Within the Fuzzy Multiple Methodology
Journal Title: Бізнес Інформ - Year 2016, Vol 6, Issue
Abstract
The article is concerned with analyzing the differences between risk assessments based on the alternative methods within the fuzzy multiple methodology. The study is restricted with the component (aspect) of the risk measure as degree of possibility of that the actual value of the criterion of attractiveness (efficiency) of the considered economic activity or event will not match some specified (normative) level. In the system of fuzzy multiple approach this direction is represented by the three main methods: based on the theoretical-probabilistic analogy and on the basis of the intervallic by the levels of membership methodology «with» and «without» weighing (both the respectively modified and the original Nedosekin-Voronov method). By means of the function of divergences, formulated by the author, a comparative analysis of the indicated methods for estimating the magnitude of risk has been carried out. It has been found that the alternative risk assessments within some scale of risk gradations can conflict between themselves. The received results serve as a theoretical basis for the responsible and meaningful approach to orientation on a method of risk measuring when preparing and adopting managerial decisions in a fuzzy data situation. Further research efforts concerning the issue, considered in this publication, should be directed to formation of a coherent methodology for a quantitative risk analysis within terms of the fuzzy multiple approach.
Authors and Affiliations
Oleksiy Kotsyuba
Keywords
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