Визначення пріоритетів ризикових ситуацій при керуванні динамічними системами
Journal Title: Механіка гіроскопічних систем - Year 2015, Vol 0, Issue 30
Abstract
The paper considers the actual problem of prioritization the risk situations during controlling process of the dynamic systems of different nature. Studied that current tools for solving the problem are quite limited and analysis aims mostly localized risk options and selected parts of systems that are at risks of losses. The set of essential features of risk situations for the purposes of establishing values of risk priorities is proposed a formalized. The set consists of six factors: measure of the reliability of data; the degree of criticality of the system resource that is at risk of losses; swiftness indicator of the risk; the degree of risk (probability); level of risk (losses); costs for risk prevention and system recovery after the come-risk. The paper describes the graphic method for mode prioritizing risk situations with the usage of special spiderweb radar diagram. This method allows generalizing of different incomparable estimates of the various units of measure and provides good visibility of values with their mutual influence. But this method also does not allow the usage of different influence weights of risk factors. A reasonable approach for risk prioritization based on the weighted sum of the values of risk factors that reduced to relative scales is proposed. All estimation values are based on the common scale with units as a percentage from the minimum possible to the maximum possible value. This approach is the most practical ease of use. It proves suitability for usage in automated real-time systems with low computing capabilities and versatility of applications of different nature. The future research is advisable to focus on the developing approaches for automated identification and adaptation of weighting coefficients of risk factors during the real-time system performance.
Authors and Affiliations
Лев Олександрович Коршевнюк
Keywords
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