WORLD ENERGY AND CLIMATE IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY IN THE CONTEXT OF HISTORICAL TRENDS:CLEAR CONSTRAINTS TO THE FUTURE GROWTH
Journal Title: Journal of Globalization Studies - Year 2010, Vol 1, Issue 2
Abstract
The paper deals with global energy perspectives and forthcoming changes in the atmosphere and climate under the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors. In the framework of the historical approach to energy development the forecast of the future global energy consumption for the present century is elaborated, and its resource base and the global consequences of the impact of the power sector on the atmosphere and climate on the background of natural factors are studied. It is shown that, following the historical path of global energy evolution, the global energy consumption will remain within 28–29 billion tons of coal equivalent (tce) by the end of the century, with CO2 emissions peaking in the middle of the century. In this scenario, the CO2 concentrations will not exceed 500 ppm, and the global temperature should rise by 1.5 degree C by 2100, with the growth rate not exceeding the adaptation limits of the biosphere.
Authors and Affiliations
Vladimir V. Klimenko, Alexey G. Tereshin
Keywords
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