A Forecasting Model with Consistent Adjustments for Anticipated Future Variations
Journal Title: Journal of Applied Quantitative Methods - Year 2009, Vol 4, Issue 4
Abstract
Due to the limitation of most statistical forecasting models ignoring contextual information, judgmental adjustment is a widespread practice in business. However, judgmental adjustment still suffers with many kinds of biases and inconsistency inherent in subjective judgment. Our approach uses an adjustment mechanism concerning only with critical cue factors evaluated with genetic algorithm to alleviate problems caused by collinearity and insignificant sporadic variables usually arising in least square type estimators, and to derive more realistic parameter estimation. In case there are anticipated variations in the forecasting horizon and can’t be handled by the model alone, this adjusting mechanism, formulated in a set of equations, can be used to assess mixed effect of cue factors consistently and effectively without subjective judgment involved. Empirical results reveal that this adjustment mechanism could significantly reduce MAPE of forecasts across seasons with improvement mainly coming from large size adjustments.
Authors and Affiliations
Chin-Lien WANG, Li-Chih WANG
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP155486
- DOI -
- Views 126
- Downloads 0
THE RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION STRUCTURE OF THE VILLAGES FROM ROMANIA
This article aims to sketch some typologies of Romanian communes from the perspective of religious affiliation of the population. All data used comes from the last population and housing census (2002) from which informat...
TREND OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGS BY THE VISITORS IN BANGLADESH
This study was an attempt to know the trend of foreign exchange earnings by the visitors in Bangladesh. To estimate this trend, secondary data was used for the period 1986-2008. Different statistical techniques and trend...
Comparative Multidimensional Analysis Of Wheat Production At County Level
This article presents a series of multidimensional analysis methods on agricultural factors at county level, performing subsequently a comparison between the results obtained in 2004 and, respectively, in 2008. By applyi...
Some Notes on the Logistic Distribution[sup][/sup]
In this paper we study some properties of the density function f (x;θ ) =θ ⋅ e[sup]−x[/sup] (1+ e[sup]−x[/sup] )−[sup](θ +1)[/sup] , x ∈ R,θ > 0 which may be obtained from the distribution of the last order statistic...
DOES LOG-RANK TEST GIVE SATISFACTORY RESULTS?
Comparison of effects of two treatments by log-rank test is a very common phenomenon in medical research. Researchers prefer to use log-rank test with out carrying about the assumptions of test, which sometimes not only...