A Tipping Point and Predict Method to Protect Sustainable Development from Being Fragile
Journal Title: Saudi Journal of Engineering and Technology - Year 2018, Vol 3, Issue 3
Abstract
Abstract:Combining with the actual conditions of Venezuela, we apply fuzzy synthetic evaluation models based on analytic hierarchy process to calculate the tipping point that makes the country fragile. Then, we establish a gray forecasting model and predict that the climate change will push the country to more fragile by indirectly affecting food production, water supply, natural disasters and economy in 3 years. Finally, we have reason to believe that the government can effectively mitigate the impact of climate change on the state fragility through some human intervention. Keywords:Climate change; fragile states; analytic hierarchy process; fuzzy synthetic evaluation models.
Authors and Affiliations
Haoran Liu, Xi Yu, Li Tian
Keywords
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