ADAPTIVE BAYESIAN MODELS FOR EVALUATING THE INDICATORS OF THE RELIABILITY OF FREIGHT CARS ON THE STAGES OF THE LIFE CYCLE
Journal Title: Збірник наукових праць Українського державного університету залізничного транспорту - Year 2018, Vol 182, Issue 16
Abstract
The article discusses the rationale for the application of the Bayesian model (BM) for calculating the reliability indicators of a freight car at the stages of its life cycle. The life cycle includes such stages as the creation, production, operation, repair and utilization of the car. Each of the stages, in turn, consists of several operations and procedures. So, for example: the design phase begins with pre-design solutions and ends with the creation of the car; the production phase - from production to decommissioning, and the operation and maintenance phase - from the start of operation to the disposal of the car. BM allows to evaluate a posteriori (after the implementation of actions) probable hypothesis, if the facts on the implementation of certain actions have become known. The work investigated the fulfillment of requirements for incompatibility of action groups (controlled processes), the data of which are used in models of adaptation of system parameters that control the reliability indicators of cars. A freight wagon is considered, in the nodes (wheel sets) of which mechanical wear and fatigue damage occur. For the study, the mileage of 160 thousand km was taken into account, since within these limits the indicated damages are independent, and the approximation error is an acceptable 16 %, which ensures the application of the Bayesian approach. On the basis of experimental data, indicators of reliability of parts and components of freight cars were determined. The calculated reliability indicators and the developed individual scheme of the freight car model allowed us to construct the failure-proof matrix of individual elements and nodes of gondola cars 12-7023 for different operating times (runs). Analyzing the elements of the matrix, the vulnerable parts and assemblies of the gondola cars were identified, changes in the design of the cars were recommended, the overhaul run or repair time was increased. The usage of adapted BM models according to the presented methodology allows assessing the reliability indicators at the stages of the life cycle, optimizing the turnaround time and number of repairs during the life cycle of the car model, while ensuring that structural features are taken into account, as well as the probabilities of failure-free operation of the wagon-bearing elements and components.
Authors and Affiliations
Sergiy Miamlyn, Vladislav Skalozub, L. Muradian
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP536329
- DOI 10.18664/1994-7852.182.2018.160515
- Views 79
- Downloads 0
REPAIR AND RECONSTRUCTION OF FACADES OF HISTORICAL BUILDINGS OF KHARKOV CITY
The article is devoted to the issue of repair and restoration of facades of historical buildings on the example of the city of Kharkov. The analysis of the latest researches and publications devoted to this issue is carr...
USING THE METHOD OF FINITE ELEMENTS FOR DETERMINING THE STRESSED-DEFORMED STATE OF ELEMENTS OF THE RAILWAY TRACK
The main principles of the construction and operation of the software complex for estimating the stress-strain state of structural elements of the upper structure of the track under the influence of spatial forces from t...
STUDY OF INTERACTION OF CLAY-CONTAINED MATERIALS BY INFRAREDSPECTROSCOPY METHOD
In the article a possibility of composition material creation is shown that contains clay soils and waste of produce. As the waste were used metallurgical slags and active sludge of biological treatment stations of urban...
ANALYSIS OF METHODS AND EXPERT EVALUATION OF OPERATIONAL CONTROL OF THE TECHNICAL STATE OF CHARGED PARTS OF MOBILE COMPOSITION
Classification of methods of diagnostics of wheel-sets of rolling stock is given. The systems of operative diagnosis by certain parameters and methods with the help of which wheel pairs are diagnosed, their advantages an...
STEEL-GLUED WITHOUT ANCHOR JOINT SHORT-TERM STRENGTH EXPERIMENTAL RESERCH ON ACRYLIC MODIFIED COMPOSITIONS
The central issue of the paper is the short-term adhesive strength dependence determining from the number of various technological factors and advanced acrylic composition selection for further elements constructions and...