ADAPTIVE BAYESIAN MODELS FOR EVALUATING THE INDICATORS OF THE RELIABILITY OF FREIGHT CARS ON THE STAGES OF THE LIFE CYCLE
Journal Title: Збірник наукових праць Українського державного університету залізничного транспорту - Year 2018, Vol 182, Issue 16
Abstract
The article discusses the rationale for the application of the Bayesian model (BM) for calculating the reliability indicators of a freight car at the stages of its life cycle. The life cycle includes such stages as the creation, production, operation, repair and utilization of the car. Each of the stages, in turn, consists of several operations and procedures. So, for example: the design phase begins with pre-design solutions and ends with the creation of the car; the production phase - from production to decommissioning, and the operation and maintenance phase - from the start of operation to the disposal of the car. BM allows to evaluate a posteriori (after the implementation of actions) probable hypothesis, if the facts on the implementation of certain actions have become known. The work investigated the fulfillment of requirements for incompatibility of action groups (controlled processes), the data of which are used in models of adaptation of system parameters that control the reliability indicators of cars. A freight wagon is considered, in the nodes (wheel sets) of which mechanical wear and fatigue damage occur. For the study, the mileage of 160 thousand km was taken into account, since within these limits the indicated damages are independent, and the approximation error is an acceptable 16 %, which ensures the application of the Bayesian approach. On the basis of experimental data, indicators of reliability of parts and components of freight cars were determined. The calculated reliability indicators and the developed individual scheme of the freight car model allowed us to construct the failure-proof matrix of individual elements and nodes of gondola cars 12-7023 for different operating times (runs). Analyzing the elements of the matrix, the vulnerable parts and assemblies of the gondola cars were identified, changes in the design of the cars were recommended, the overhaul run or repair time was increased. The usage of adapted BM models according to the presented methodology allows assessing the reliability indicators at the stages of the life cycle, optimizing the turnaround time and number of repairs during the life cycle of the car model, while ensuring that structural features are taken into account, as well as the probabilities of failure-free operation of the wagon-bearing elements and components.
Authors and Affiliations
Sergiy Miamlyn, Vladislav Skalozub, L. Muradian
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP536329
- DOI 10.18664/1994-7852.182.2018.160515
- Views 65
- Downloads 0
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