An Empirical Analysis of Passenger Rail Demand in Pakistan
Journal Title: Research Journal Social Sciences (Online) - Year 2016, Vol 5, Issue 1
Abstract
This study identifies the major determinants of passenger rail demand along with forecasting performance in case of Pakistan. The data set covered annual observations over the period from 1980 to 2012. To examine the short run and long run relationship between passenger rail demand and its determinants, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model have been used. For comparison of forecasting performance, univariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and multivariate ARDL forecasted model have been estimated. The passenger kilometers (PKM) is our variable of interest whereas the explanatory variables are total population, GDP per capita, domestic diesel oil prices and fare. The findings of this study indicated that the GDP per capita and population plays pivotal role for increasing passenger rail demand but fare and domestic diesel oil prices have negative relationship. The results postulated that the multivariate ARDL forecasting model is more precise than the univariate ARIMA model. The performance of the predicted models is assessed based on mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE). On the basis of results government may adopt policies for enhancing GDP, and generating alternative resources for reducing fare and diesel oil prices.
Authors and Affiliations
ALTAF HUSSAIN, Saqlain Raza, Mariuam Shafi
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP321095
- DOI -
- Views 114
- Downloads 0
Perception of Prospective Teachers about the Role of Practice Teaching on Preparation of Prospective Teachers
Teacher training in Pakistan remained under the influence of British Education System till 1960. As a result of United States Aids Program, two schools of teachers training were instituted in collaboration with Indiana U...
Impact of Technical Barriers to Trade and Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures on Pakistan Exports
Technical barriers to trade (TBT) and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures are two major tools of non-tariff barriers set by world trade organisation (WTO) and should strictly followed by WTO member countries. These...
Modelling the Impact of Policy Environment on Inflows of Worker’s Remittances in Pakistan: A Multivariate Analysis
The study investigates relevant significance of various economic determinants for inflows of worker’s remittances to Pakistan. Following precedence from the policy index developed by Burnside and Dollar (2000), we develo...
Monetary Policy Stance: Comparison of Different Measures for Pakistan
This paper estimates monetary policy stance measures like Monetary Conditions Index (MCI), Financial Conditions Index (FCI), and Bernanke and Mihov Index (BMI) for Pakistan. The estimated monetary policy stance guides wh...
Organisational Conflicts and Duplications in TVET Sector at Federal Level: Analysis of Pakistan
Technical Vocational Education and Training (TVET) is essential for the attainment of socio-economic well beings in Pakistan having growing and abundant labour work force in the country. Well-organised working of TVET sy...