AN ESTIMATION OF POPULATION REPLACEMENT PROSPECTS IN UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SECOND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
Journal Title: Вісник Київського національного університету імені Тараса Шевченка. Економіка. - Year 2014, Vol 4, Issue 157
Abstract
Ukraine, as well as most the East – Europe countries, is in the status of demographic maturity. The characteristic sign of this stage demographic development are a high level of aging and sufficiently long life expectancy, relatively low marriage and childbearing activity and, as a result is a zero or negative natural increase. However, the modern process of evolution the survival regime and model of fertility in different countries has their own specific, in particular different flow and duration. In some countries the order of change the natural population replacement is repeated with certain lag. The article presents a comparative statistical analysis of change the model of fertility and the survival regime population in Ukraine and some Eastern Europe countries. The scenarios of medium – term forecasts the demographic behavior of Ukrainian population has been carried out. The results of statistical modeling the characteristics of natural population replacement allow to estimate the character of possible changes and also to correct strategy of state demographic policy in Ukraine.
Authors and Affiliations
Zinaida Palian
Keywords
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- EP ID EP414514
- DOI 10.17721/1728-2667.2014/157-4/15
- Views 64
- Downloads 0
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