Analysis of Forecasting Documents for the Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Arctic
Journal Title: Arctic and North - Year 2022, Vol 48, Issue 48
Abstract
The tasks of forecasting the development of Russian territories, in particular the territory of the Arctic, are the most problematic due to the urgent need of the economy and management for a reliable forecast, the uncertainty of the near future caused by the turbulence of geopolitics, and the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on socio-economic processes, which are also not fully measurable. The purpose of the article is to present the initial grounds and forecast of the socio-economic development of the regions of the Russian Arctic with a lead time up to 2023. The methodological peculiarity of the research is to take into account geopolitical, national, regional, industrial factors and development trends on the basis of using: 1) the analysis results of real and perspective global trends recorded in statistical indicators, forecast documents of the IMF, WTO, Central Bank, Ministry of Economic Development of Russia; 2) generalizations, comparisons of official forecasts and development plans of the AZRF adopted at the federal, regional levels, as well as forecasts, plans of corporations operating in the AZRF; 3) analysis of real statistical data using the author's econometric models. Given the considerable amount of analytical information received, the aspects and factors that have a key influence on the prospects of socio-economic development of the Arctic are outlined and classified according to the following levels: global, national, regional. Forecasts are made for the regions entirely located in the Arctic zone — Yamalo-Nenets, Nenets and Chukotka Autonomous okrugs, the Murmansk Oblast with an anticipation period up to 20212023. The importance of scientific forecasting in modern conditions is emphasized, encouraging reflection, new hypotheses, discussions.
Authors and Affiliations
Tatiana P. Skufina, Sergey V. Baranov, Vera P. Samarina
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP710186
- DOI 10.37482/issn2221-2698.2022.48.57
- Views 44
- Downloads 0
Geopolitical Risks of Hydrocarbon Development in the Russian Arctic
The article is devoted to the issues of geopolitical risks (GPR) in the hydrocarbon development of the Russian Arctic. The authors pay special attention to the analysis of modern geopolitical and geostrategic challenges...
Geological and Geographical Expedition of A.A. Keyserling and P.I. Krusenstern to the European North-East of Russia
The paper provides information about the expedition to the European North of Russia in 1843. The expedition travelled about 8000 miles (about 8427 km). The main route was connected with the wa-terway along the rivers Vyc...
Small Business in the Arctic: Background for Changing the Management Paradigm
The article is devoted to the analysis and justification of socio-economic background that initiates the need to change the paradigm of management for small and medium-sized businesses in the Arctic zone of the Russian F...
“Digital Twin” of the Arctic Population in Demographic Research and Territorial Development Management
The article considers “digital twins” of the population as a tool for socio-demographic research and territorial management. The experience of creating digital twins of the population and interactive web-sites devoted to...
Recovery technology of social work — an important condition for maintaining and ensuring family safety (case of the Arkhangelsk Oblast)
Ensuring the social security of the modern family is an urgent issue and a priority of the national policy of the Russian Federation. In contemporary society, the relationship between the social security system and the r...