Application of convolution neural networks for critical frequency fₒF2 prediction
Journal Title: Solar-Terrestrial Physics - Year 2023, Vol 9, Issue 1
Abstract
Ionosphere has an important impact on the quality of radio communication, radar, and global positioning. One of the essential characteristics describing the state of the ionosphere is its critical frequency fₒF2. Its prediction provides effective modes of operation of technical radio equipment as well as enables calculation of the corrections needed to improve the accuracy of its functioning. Different physical and empirical models are generally used for fₒF2 prediction. This paper proposes an empirical prediction technique based on machine learning methods and observational history. It relies on a regression approach to the prediction based on the known daily quasi-periodicity of ionospheric parameters related to solar illumination. Algorithmically, this approach is implemented in the form of convolutional neural networks with two-dimensional convolution. The input data for the analysis is presented as two-dimensional solar time — date matrices. The model was trained on data from the mid-latitude ionosonde in Irkutsk (RF) and tested using data from several mid-latitude ionosondes: Arti (RF), Warsaw (Poland), Mohe (China). It is shown that the main contribution to the prediction value of fₒF2 is made by the data on the nearest few days before the prediction; the contribution of the remaining days strongly decreases. This model has the following forecast quality metrics (Pearson correlation coefficient 0.928, root mean square error 0.598 MHz, mean absolute error in percent 10.45 %, coefficient of determination 0.861) and can be applied to fₒF2 forecast in middle latitudes.
Authors and Affiliations
Salimov B. G. , Berngardt O. I. , Hmelnov A. E. , Ratovsky K. G. , Kusonsky O. A.
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP714643
- DOI 10.12737/stp-91202307
- Views 60
- Downloads 0
ESTIMATED EQUIVALENT RADIATION DOSE AT DIFFERENT ALTITUDES IN EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE
The paper reports the results of simulation of cosmic ray proton transport through Earth’s atmosphere. The main objective of this work is to obtain characteristics of secondary particle fluxes at different altitudes and...
KINEMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF STEALTH CME IN THREE-DIMENSIONAL SPACE
We have studied and compared kinematic characteristics of the motion of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in three-dimensional (3D) space for three groups of CMEs for the period 2008–2014. These CME groups include: (i) steal...
FEATURES OF ARTIFICIAL IONOSPHERE TURBULENCE INDUCED BY THE O- AND X-MODE HF HEATING NEAR THE F2-LAYER CRITICAL FREQUENCY
We present experimental results from the studies of large-scale inhomogeneities along the external magnetic field with increased electron density, electron temperature, and excitation of elongated plasma waves (Langmuir...
GEOMAGNETIC METHOD FOR AUTOMATIC DIAGNOSTICS OF AURORAL OVAL BOUNDARIES IN TWO HEMISPHERES OF EARTH
The ground-based automatic method for determining auroral oval (AO) boundaries developed by the authors [Lunyushkin, Penskikh, 2019] has been modified and expanded to the Southern Hemisphere. Input data of the method con...
VARIATIONS OF FLOW DIRECTION IN SOLAR WIND STREAMS OF DIFFERENT TYPES
Studying the direction of the solar wind flow is a topical problem of space weather forecasting. As a rule, the quiet and uniform solar wind propagates radially, but significant changes in the solar wind flow direction c...