Assessment of the Possible Extent of Loss of Life (LOL) Downstream of Large Dams due to Dam Failure Flooding
Journal Title: Journal of River Engineering - Year 2014, Vol 2, Issue 5
Abstract
High flooding downstream of a dam could cause severe damages to the people and property. The most important damage is the loss of life which does not have any substitute. In this study, the extent of loss of life (LOL) downstream of a large dam due to dam failure has been focused. The LOL extent has been considered in terms of downstream distance. For systematic hydraulic analysis, the Jhelum river valley, about 329 km long downstream of Mangla dam in Pakistan has been taken into consideration. Using the flood routing results of different dam failure cases modeled in MIKE 11 and available data of population at risk (PAR), the possible loss of life (LOL) has been estimated by an improved LOL estimation method, which has been developed by the main author. The extent of life loss has also been determined in terms of downstream distance for different dam failure cases. In different dam failure cases, about 80% of the total loss of life occurs up to 50 km downstream and 20% occurs after 50 km up to 286 km downstream of the dam. This study verifies and also contradicts some past predictions about the possible extent of LOL downstream of very large dams due to dam failure. The results of this research would be useful for long-term disaster mitigation planning of large dams in Pakistan as well as in other parts of the world.
Authors and Affiliations
Saqib Ehsan - Walter Marx
Keywords
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