Construction and validation of a prediction model of intraoperative hypothermia in patients with gastrointestinal tumors
Journal Title: Journal of Air Force Medical University - Year 2023, Vol 44, Issue 9
Abstract
Objective To establish a prediction model of intraoperative hypothermia in patients with gastrointestinal tumors and verify its prediction effect. Methods A total of 495 patients (340 males and 155 females) who received surgical treatment for gastrointestinal tumors were selected from the Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Xijing Hospital, Air Force Medical University from March to June 2021 by convenience sampling method. The age ranged from 20 to 85 (59. 64 ± 11. 31) years old. The enrolled patients were randomly assigned to the modeling group and the validation group in a ratio of 2 ∶ 1. The occurrence of intraoperative hypothermia in patients undergoing gastrointestinal tumor surgery was analyzed through the data of the modeling group, the receiver operating characteristic curve ( ROC) was drawn to construct a prediction model, and the data of the validation group was used to verify the model. Results The actual incidence of intraoperative hypothermia was 32. 7% ( 108 / 330 ) in the modeling group and 36. 4% ( 60 / 165 ) in the validation group. Finally, the factors entering the prediction model were radical gastrectomy (OR = 0. 097), laparoscopy-assisted surgery (OR = 3. 642 ), room temperature ( OR = 0. 158 ), and active warming measures ( OR = 0. 105 ) . In Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P was 0. 589, area under the ROC curve was 0. 865, 95% CI was 0. 823 0. 906, and Youdens index was 0. 608, with sensitivity of 0. 806 and specificity of 0. 802. The accuracy of actual application was 83. 03% . Conclusion Radical gastrectomy, laparoscopy-assisted surgery, room temperature and whether to take active warming measures are independent risk factors for intraoperative hypothermia. The establishment of a risk prediction model for intraoperative hypothermia can effectively predict the risk of intraoperative hypothermia in patients undergoing gastrointestinal tumor surgery. The prediction model established in this study has a good effect, which can provide reference for clinical screening of high-risk patients with hypothermia during gastrointestinal tumor surgery.
Authors and Affiliations
LUO Mengjia, DAI Yanran, LANG Hongjuan
Keywords
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