Crisis Management: Companies financial crisis prediction
Journal Title: Religación. Revista de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades - Year 2019, Vol 4, Issue 14
Abstract
Financial crises are one of the most common phenomena in the economy. This research studies important variables in predicting the financial crisis and bankruptcy of companies and have identified the most important financial variables in predicting the financial crisis. After identification, the most important predictors of bankruptcy and a model for forecasting the financial crisis and bankruptcy of the companies have been presented and its predictive power has been tested. To identify the most important variables in the prediction of financial crisis and bankruptcy of companies, a linear separation function model has been used and a 9-variable model has been designed and presented. These ratios include the ratio of pre-interest and asset taxes, the ratio of accumulated profits to assets, the ratio of working capital to assets, the proportion of equity to debt, the proportion of profit before interest and sales tax, the ratio of current assets to debts Current, net profit to sales ratio, debt ratio to assets and company size. The ability to predict the model has been evaluated using information from companies with a financial crisis and companies without a financial crisis. The results of the survey show that up to five years before the financial crisis can be predicted using a relatively high accuracy model.
Authors and Affiliations
Mohammad Rezaie Narimisa, Noor Ezlin Ahmad Basri, Ramezanali Shayanrad
Keywords
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