DELPHI METHOD FORECASTING – METHOD OF EVALUATING FORECAST ACCURACY
Journal Title: Scientific Journal of the Military University of Land Forces - Year 2010, Vol 157, Issue 3
Abstract
The study analysed the possibility of verifying expert assessments in the Delphi method of forecasting events. The proposed method of calculation allows one to answer the following questions: Can you have confidence in experts and are experts’ assessments consistent? It makes it possible to determine the basic statistics for the variables, eliminating the deficiencies of concordance among experts. The article describes the basic assumptions of the Delphi method, its advantages and disadvantages. In section 2, the method of calculation is presented, using statistical tests of normality of distributions, equality of variance and significance of differences in groups.
Authors and Affiliations
Magdalena ROGALSKA
Keywords
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