Do we de-bias ourselves?: The impact of repeated presentation on the bat-and-ball problem
Journal Title: Judgment and Decision Making - Year 2019, Vol 14, Issue 2
Abstract
The notorious bat-and-ball problem has long been used to demonstrate that people are easily biased by their intuitions. In this paper we test the robustness of biased responding by examining how it is affected by repeated problem presentation. Participants solved 50 standard and control versions of the bat-and-ball problem. To examine the nature of a potential learning effect we adopted a two-response paradigm in which participants have to give a first hunch and can afterwards take the time to deliberate and change their answer. Results showed that both people’s first hunches and the responses they gave after deliberation predominantly remained biased from start to finish. But in the rare cases in which participants did learn to correct themselves, they immediately managed to apply the solution strategy and gave a correct hunch on the subsequent problems. We discuss critical methodological and theoretical implications.
Authors and Affiliations
Matthieu Raoelison and Wim De Neys
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP678408
- DOI -
- Views 122
- Downloads 0
Measuring Risk Literacy: The Berlin Numeracy Test
We introduce the Berlin Numeracy Test, a new psychometrically sound instrument that quickly assesses statistical numeracy and risk literacy. We present 21 studies (n=5336) showing robust psychometric discriminability acr...
Numeric and graphic risk information processing of high and low numerates in the intuitive and deliberative decision modes: An eye-tracker study
The influence of numeracy on information processing of two risk communication formats (percentage and pictograph) was examined using an eye tracker. A sample from the general population (N = 159) was used. In intuitive a...
Do discounts mitigate numerological superstitions? Evidence from the Russian real estate market
In this paper I investigate the impact of numerological superstitions and discounts’ effect on the buyers’ behavior in the apartment market using actual sales data. Based on the dataset from Moscow primary real estate ma...
Why are gainers more risk seeking
The phenomenon that prior gains may increase people’s willingness to accept risky gambles is named as the house money effect (Thaler and Johnson, 1990). Many studies have shown that the “house money effect” is a robust p...
Modeling sequential context effects in judgment analysis:
In this article a broad perspective incorporating elements of time series theory is presented for conceptualizing the data obtained in multi-trial judgment experiments. Recent evidence suggests that sequential context ef...