Dynamic relationship between changes of mortality rate and urban development level in Shanghai
Journal Title: Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine - Year 2023, Vol 35, Issue 7
Abstract
ObjectiveTo analyze the dynamic response relationship between urban development and mortality rate in Shanghaiï¼ and to predict the trend of mortality rate changes.MethodsBy analyzing the total mortality rate ï¼TMRï¼ï¼ gross domestic product ï¼GDPï¼ and socio-demographic index ï¼SDIï¼ in Shanghai from 1978 to 2017ï¼ a vector autoregressive ï¼VARï¼ model was constructed to evaluate the impact of urban development on the mortality rate.ResultsThe fitted R2 of the VAR model was 0.92. The short-term effect of GDP on the improvement of death level was negativeï¼ while the long-term effect was positiveï¼ and the SDI was negative regardless of the short-term and long-term effects. By the tenth yearï¼ GDP and SDI contributed 10.61% and 27.25% to TMR changesï¼ respectively. The model predicted that the mortality rate in Shanghai would be 9.17 per thousand by 2030.ConclusionLong-term economic growth can effectively promote a decline in population mortality. Howeverï¼ as the economy develops vigorouslyï¼ the adverse effects of declining birth rates and population aging on population health during the era of high-level population development should not be ignored.
Authors and Affiliations
JIN Shan,FANG Bo,CAI Renzhi,QIAN Naisi,YU Huiting,QIAO Jiaying,CHEN Lei,WANG Chunfang,
Keywords
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