Earthquake forecasting by the results of the seismic signal trend analysis
Journal Title: Геофизический журнал - Year 2018, Vol 40, Issue 6
Abstract
In the article, using the example of earthquakes that occurred in Japan in 2003 and 2011, the results of the method verification proposed by the author for destructive earthquakes prediction are given. The method involves the identification of zones with a seismic signal level higher in relation to the surrounding areas, the construction of a seismic signals total trend registered at each of the seismic stations located in this zone. The total trend is approximated by the trend model. The model is designed in such a way that the predicted parameters: the time of the earthquake and the coordinates of its epicenter are included in its mathematical structure. These parameters are determined in the parametric identification process of the model based on the results of seismic signals regular monitoring performed on each of the reference seismic stations. Further, on the basis of these data and the known strength of the reference earthquake, the strength of the future earthquake is determined. Verification showed that the prediction of earthquakes, carried out in accordance with the method considered in the article, has a high degree of reliability and stable repeatability of the forecast throughout the entire period of observation of the developing earthquake. This property of the technique is explained by the fact that it is based on the study of the dynamics of the change in the prognostic trait, and not on the generally accepted current consideration of the current (static) value of the trait. Positive results of verification served as the basis for the approbation of the method, which allowed predicting the time, coordinates of the epicenter and the strength of the ripening earthquakes in the Nanking Valley area.
Authors and Affiliations
V. V. Nagornyi
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP477903
- DOI 10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v40i6.2018.151054
- Views 100
- Downloads 0
The construction of the graphical image of the target functional and its use for the search for multivariant solutions of the inverse magneto-prospecting problem
For practical applications, we propose a technology for searching ordered sets of feasible solutions of the inverse magneto-prospecting problem. It is oriented towards using the elements of the guarantee approach, which...
On conceptual grounds of diagnostics and monitoring of geosystems
Within the trend of ideas, methods and approaches of nonlinear dynamics basic features of geo-systems are being considered on high-quality level. It is noticed that evolution of processes and objects in lithosphere canno...
FINAL WORKSHOP of International Research Group Project "SOUTH CAUCASUS GEOSCIENCES" (October 25-27, 2017, Kyiv, Ukraine)
Main resalts of International Research Group Project "SOUTH CAUCASUS GEOSCIENCES" (October 25-27, 2017, Kyiv, Ukraine)
The geographical, geological and mining completion by Rosatom of the life cycle of nuclear energy waste
The issues of possible optimal burial of nuclear power plant waste in Russia are considered.
Pareto-optimal solutions of the inverse problem of gravimetry with indeterminate a priori information
The paper discusses theoretical aspects of solving the nonlinear inverse problem of gravimetry with uncertainty of a priori information. The a priori information is described by fuzzy sets. Special-purpose geophysical pr...