Establishment of an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province, Iran
Journal Title: Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine - Year 2019, Vol 9, Issue 6
Abstract
Objective: To establish an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province, Iran in 2016. Methods: Time-series data were recorded from 29 201 cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in 25 cities of Fars province from 2010 to 2015 and were used to fit and predict the cases using time-series models. Different models were compared via Akaike information criterion/ Bayesian information criterion statistics, residual analysis, autocorrelation function, and partial autocorrelation function sample/model. To decide on an outbreak, four endemic scores were evaluated including mean, median, mean + 2 standard deviations, and median + interquartile range of the past five years. Patients whose symptoms of cutaneous leishmaniasis began from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2015 were included, and there were no exclusion criteria. Results: Regarding four statistically significant endemic values, four different cutaneous leishmaniasis space-time outbreaks were detected in 2016. The accuracy of all four endemic values was statistically significant (P<0.05). Conclusions: This study presents a protocol to set early warning systems regarding time and space features of cutaneous leishmaniasis in four steps: (i) to define endemic values based on which we could verify if there is an outbreak, (ii) to set different time-series models to forecast cutaneous leishmaniasis in future, (iii) to compare the forecasts with endemic values and decide on space-time outbreaks, and (iv) to set an alarm to health managers.
Authors and Affiliations
Marjan Zare, Abbas Rezaianzadeh, Hamidreza Tabatabaee, Hossain Faramarzi, Mohsen Aliakbarpour, Mostafa Ebrahimi
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP594846
- DOI 10.4103/2221-1691.260395
- Views 71
- Downloads 0
Hemolymph proteins in marine crustaceans
This study is done with the aim to bring together the various antimicrobial peptides that are present in the crustacean hemolymph and their sources along with its characteristics. Invertebrates lack immune systems that i...
Infections and inequalities: anemia in AIDS, the disadvantages of poverty
Objective To study anemia in AIDS patients and its relation with socioeconomic, employment status and educational levels. Methods A total number of 442 patients who visited the Infectious Diseases University Hospital...
Assessment of pesticide contaminated sediment using biological response of tropical chironomid, Chironomus javanus Kiffer as biomarker
Objective: To investigate the use of a biomarker for assessment of the effects on the tropical chironomid, Chironomus javanus (C. javanus), Kiffer of sediment contaminated with an insecticide (chlorpyrifos). Methods: A w...
Interdisciplinary researches for potential developments of drugs and natural products
Developments of drugs or natural products from plants are possibly made, simple to use and lower cost than modern drugs. The development processes can be started with studying local wisdom and literature reviews to choos...
Disseminated strongyloidiasis in an immunocompromised host: A case report
Infections caused by Strongyloides stercoralis (S. stercoralis) in human are generally asymptomatic, however in immunocompromised individual, hyperinfection may develop with dissemination of larvae to extra-intestinal or...