Estimate and predictive model of regional geodemographic system
Journal Title: Економічна та соціальна географія - Year 2017, Vol 77, Issue
Abstract
The regional geodemographic system is a typical subject of a human geographer. Estimate and predictive model of geodemographic system, proposed in this paper, is created for pilot study of development tendencies of geodemographic system and forecasting of its changes in view of various management scenarios. Creation of a model needs for several preparatory stages. The first stage is an idealization of the studied system. The next one is formalization that provides transition from the figurative and verbal description of a model to unambiguous representations by means of formal logic in the form of balance equations. To describe the changes of geodemographic system, a balance equation is used, describing each settlement or each local geodemographic system as a part of regional geodemographic system. The final stage implies parametrization and input of entry conditions. Flexibility of the model algorithm allows realizing four main options, listed here from the least to the most complicate: a) retrospective analysis for identification of the main temporary tendencies of regional geodemographic system functioning; b) short-time or long-time forecasting of a regional geodemographic system according to various options of its development; c) use of the model to manage the development of regional geodemographic situation; d) creation of online permanent model of regional geodemographic system and its development. The letter option represents a perspective and utmost practical application of the proposed estimate and predictive model in public management. Key words:
Authors and Affiliations
Kateryna Sehida
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP236282
- DOI 10.17721/2413-7154/2017.77.85-91
- Views 93
- Downloads 0
Modern Ukraine through cross-border population flows
The article defines the specialty of both broad and specific migration interpretation as a human geographic mobility and justifies the actuality of cross-border population flow problems for the modern Ukraine. Object of...
Pecularities of the multiple regression method application in the investigation of Chinese special economic zones
This article investigates the third generation special economic zones in China and their effectiveness factors. It considers economic and technological development zones both as forms of international cooperation and as...
Settlement aspects of economic development in Kharkiv region
The formation of regional settlement system is defined by the historical process of settling. Kharkiv Region has been populated for a long time both voluntarily and forcibly, which led to development of a special settlem...
Provision of the middle Dnieper population with places for a short-term recreation near water
The article provides the analysis of endowment of the Middle Dnieper region residents with places (recreation facilities and recreation complexes) for organizing a short-term recreation near water. This work bases on a p...
Valuation of the territory of Ukrainian settlements: practical use and problems
The article explores the basic mechanisms of state regulation of land valuation, existing problems and trends aimed to improve valuation methods. It reveals the most common practical scope of land valuation. The author m...