Estimate and predictive model of regional geodemographic system

Abstract

The regional geodemographic system is a typical subject of a human geographer. Estimate and predictive model of geodemographic system, proposed in this paper, is created for pilot study of development tendencies of geodemographic system and forecasting of its changes in view of various management scenarios. Creation of a model needs for several preparatory stages. The first stage is an idealization of the studied system. The next one is formalization that provides transition from the figurative and verbal description of a model to unambiguous representations by means of formal logic in the form of balance equations. To describe the changes of geodemographic system, a balance equation is used, describing each settlement or each local geodemographic system as a part of regional geodemographic system. The final stage implies parametrization and input of entry conditions. Flexibility of the model algorithm allows realizing four main options, listed here from the least to the most complicate: a) retrospective analysis for identification of the main temporary tendencies of regional geodemographic system functioning; b) short-time or long-time forecasting of a regional geodemographic system according to various options of its development; c) use of the model to manage the development of regional geodemographic situation; d) creation of online permanent model of regional geodemographic system and its development. The letter option represents a perspective and utmost practical application of the proposed estimate and predictive model in public management. Key words:

Authors and Affiliations

Kateryna Sehida

Keywords

Related Articles

Territorial organization of healthcare in Rivne region in the focus of human geography

The feasibility of in-depth analysis of the territorial organization of the healthcare system in Rivne region is determined primarily by the need to assess the quality of public health facilities operation and their avai...

Geographical aspects of endocrine system morbidity of population in Chernihiv and Zhytomyr regions

One of the main health effects of the Chernobyl accident are endocrine system diseases. The specific gravity of morbidity of endocrine system among the total population is 0.89% in Chernihiv region and 1.5% in Zhytomyr r...

Provision of the middle Dnieper population with places for a short-term recreation near water

The article provides the analysis of endowment of the Middle Dnieper region residents with places (recreation facilities and recreation complexes) for organizing a short-term recreation near water. This work bases on a p...

Urban public spaces: understanding through the prism of foreign discourse

The modern city focuses the crossing of complicated, ambiguous, multidimensional social processes. They are manifested in multiple aspects of it functioning from different sides, such as population (person, community, an...

Human geography scientific schools in Ukraine (conceptual approaches to the study)

This research represents comprehensive analysis of the development of scientific schools in human geography in Ukraine with a disquisition of cognitive potential and specific results of scientific schools of various type...

Download PDF file
  • EP ID EP236282
  • DOI 10.17721/2413-7154/2017.77.85-91
  • Views 126
  • Downloads 0

How To Cite

Kateryna Sehida (2017). Estimate and predictive model of regional geodemographic system. Економічна та соціальна географія, 77(), 85-91. https://europub.co.uk/articles/-A-236282