Estimating the Fiscal Impulse in Ukraine
Journal Title: Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine - Year 2018, Vol 0, Issue 245
Abstract
This paper estimates the fiscal impulse for Ukraine following the methodology of the OECD, which disaggregates budget revenues and expenditures into categories that are driven by economic cycles. To estimate the fiscal impulse the author calculates both long-term and short-term elasticities of various budget items with respect to GDP. This approach allows the author (i) to identify the fiscal policy response to economic crises in Ukraine in 2008–2009 and in 2014, and (ii) to reveal those budget items that remain sensitive to the fluctuations in the business cycle. The fiscal policy response to the 2014 crisis is found to be significantly tighter than the response to the crisis of 2008–2009. In addition, corporate income tax shows the strongest response to economic cycles among budget revenue categories, while VAT has the greatest contribution to the cyclical component of Ukraine’s budget balance.
Authors and Affiliations
Artem Vdovychenko
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP426855
- DOI 10.26531/vnbu2018.245.03
- Views 109
- Downloads 0
Independence of Central Banks in Commodity Economies
This article introduces the hypothesis that resource-rich countries display a low degree of central bank independence (CBI). This hypothesis is proven based on multivariable regression, but the influence of resource fact...
Quasi-Competitiveness of the Audit Services Market in Ukraine: The Aspect of European Integration
In the context of European integration processes and transformations in the banking sector, a study of the concentration of the audit services market in Ukraine, one of the most regulated markets, was held. The authors a...
Applying Foreign Exchange Interventions as an Additional Instrument Under Inflation Targeting: The Case of Ukraine
This study examines applying foreign exchange rate interventions under Inflation Targeting regime in an Emerging Economy. For this purpose, we employ the Quarterly Projection Model of the National Bank of Ukraine and sim...
Predicting the Utilization Rate and Risk Measures of Committed Credit Facilities
This study proposes a model for predicting the expected drawn amount of credit facilities. To model the committed credit facilities we rely on the conditional expected utilization rate derived from a joint truncated biva...
Cashless Society and De-dollarization in Ukraine. What is Missing from Present Discussions?
The National Bank of Ukraine stepped on the track to a cashless economy aiming at reforming the financial system, improvement of the transmission mechanism, and reduction of the underground economy and corruption. A subs...