ESTIMATION OF EL NINO–LA NINA IMPACT ON FORMATION OF METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
Journal Title: Вісник Одеського національного університету. Географічні та геологічні науки - Year 2014, Vol 19, Issue 4
Abstract
The paper aims to try estimating how the El Nino–La Nina phenomenon impacts on a formation of surface atmospheric pressure fields in middle and high latitudes of the Southern Atlantic Ocean (fours region) and adjacent Antarctic lands including Antarctic Peninsula with the Ukrainian Antarctic Site «Akademic V. I. Vernadskii». The proposed model for teleconnections estimation is based on the regression analysis method. To originate the linear multiple regression equations we applied sequential selection of statistically significant impact factors from the system of prospective ’predictors’ by using multiple correlation coefficient and Student’s t-test. According to the results of component analysis the first two eigenvalues exhaust more than 70% total dispersion of initial, and the regression equations were therefore originated for the respective principal components of surface pressure fields in the forth region. The first and second principal components of surface pressure and temperature fields in the 1-st, 2-nd, and 3-rd regions spreading to the most part of Southern Pacific Ocean were considered as the impact factors (’predictors’). Therefore, the set of prospective ’predictors’ in all cases involved the 12 above-mentioned principal components. Their sifting by using stepwise regression was carried out by multiple correlation coefficients. It is shown that real fields of atmospheric pressure anomalies coincide well with the model fields. The results of the study allow to conclude that the El Nino–La Nina phenomenon impacts strictly the pattern of atmospheric pressure fields in middle and high latitudes of the Southern Atlantic Ocean and adjacent lands. Particularly, the El Nino results in the positive anomalies (versus the long-term annual values) of the pressure fields, on the contrary, the La Nina causes the negative anomalies. Apparently, these patterns can be described by changes of cyclonic activity owing to the El Nino–La Nina alteration in the western sector of the Southern Hemisphere.
Authors and Affiliations
Ye. P. Shkolniy, E. N. Serga, A. I. Sushchenko
Keywords
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