Estimation of vaccine requirement by using time series analysis
Journal Title: Medpulse International Journal of Community Medicine - Year 2019, Vol 9, Issue 3
Abstract
Background: Routine Immunization is one of the most cost effective public health interventions. This important activity is carried out at all levels of health care services. At PHCs and subcentres, vaccine requirement is calculated by fixed formula. It is difficult to estimate vaccine requirement where denominator is not known as in the case of the Government Medical College. Objective: To estimate vaccine requirement using time series analysis, at Government Medical College, Latur. Material and methods: The present study was record based; undertaken at Government Medical College, Latur. The data regarding BCG and OPV vaccines used during 2009-10 to 2014-15 was taken from immunization book. This month wise data was fed in MS-excel and analyzed using software SPSS version 21.0. Method used for time series analysis was Expert Modeler for best model fit. Time series analysis and forecasting was done using best-fit models viz. – Winter’s additive for BCG and simple seasonal model for OPV. Results: A total of 38361 doses of BCG vaccine and 67348 doses of OPV vaccine were given during the years 2009-10 to 2014-15 at Government Medical College, Latur. Ljung-Box Q statistics was significant for BCG and was not significant for OPV. Forecasting was done for BCG and OPV up to 2018-19. The vaccine requirement calculated for August 2018 and February 2019 for BCG and OPV are 681 and 950 respectively. Conclusion: Time series analysis can be used to estimate vaccine requirement at Medical Colleges.
Authors and Affiliations
V V Kendre, S S Mumbare, J V Dixit, A V Wadagale
Keywords
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- EP ID EP521756
- DOI 10.26611/1011932
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