Forecast on 2030 Vietnam Electricity Consumption
Journal Title: Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research - Year 2018, Vol 8, Issue 3
Abstract
The first but very significant step in electricity system planning is to make an accurate long-term forecast on electricity consumption. This article aims to forecast the consumption for the Vietnam electricity system (GWH) up to 2030. An econometric model with the Cobb Douglas production function is used. The five variables proposed in the forecasting function are GDP, income, population, proportion of industry and service in GDP, and number of households. The forecasting equation is tested in terms of stationary and co-integration to choose meaningful variables and to eliminate the minor ones which account for none or small impacts on the forecast. The results show that: (1) the qualified forecasting equation only includes 3 major variables: the per capita income, the population, and the number of households, (2) with the medium income scenario, the forecasting consumptions in 2020, 2025, 2030 are 230,195 GWH, 349,949 GWH, 511,268 GWH respectively. (3) The GDP and the proportion of industry and service in GDP do not make major impacts on this forecasting in Vietnam. The method and the result of this article are likely a typical example of forecasting electricity consumption in developing countries which have a transforming economy similar to that in Vietnam.
Authors and Affiliations
V. H. M. Nguyen, K. T. P. Nguyen, C. V. Vo, B. T. T. Phan
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP168769
- DOI -
- Views 222
- Downloads 0
Finite Element Based Response Surface Methodology to Optimize Segmental Tunnel Lining
The main objective of this paper is to optimize the geometrical and engineering characteristics of concrete segments of tunnel lining using Finite Element (FE) based Response Surface Methodology (RSM). Input data for RSM...
Design of a Self-Phased Quadrifilar Helix Antenna for Satellite Communication
The objective of this study is the design and implementation of a Quadrifilar Helix Antenna (QHA) for telemetry, tracking and control of a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite. Because of its cardioid-shaped circularly polari...
Sensitive Constrained Optimal PMU Allocation with Complete Observability for State Estimation Solution
In this paper, a sensitive constrained integer linear programming approach is formulated for the optimal allocation of Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) in a power system network to obtain state estimation. In this approac...
An Assessment of the Impact of Information Technology on Marketing and Advertising
The present study aimed to evaluate the impact of Technology on Marketing and Advertising by using structural equations modeling. To do this, 200 marketing and information technology (IT) experts participated in the stud...
Application of Time Recursive Processing for the Development of a Time/Phase Shifter
This paper describes a powerful digital time and/or phase shifter of pulse rates, based on Time Recursive Processing. It can function either as a time shifter or as a phase shifter. The circuit can generate precise shift...