Formation of model of risk assessment during the operation of wagons with hazmat at switchyards with use of mathematical apparatus of fuzzy logic and Bayesian nets
Journal Title: Інформаційно-керуючі системи на залізничному транспорті - Year 2018, Vol 23, Issue 1
Abstract
The first stage in the developing a modern automated risk management system at the switchyards is the formation of an adequate model for assessing the risk of an accident with wagons with hazmat. The model of estimation of the current probability of occurrence of an accident with a wagon with a hazmat during its stay at a sorting station with the use of the mathematical apparatus of Bayesian nets and fuzzy logic, which covers factors related to all classes of hazards and provides an opportunity to use all relevant information about events and current state of objects at the station, has been formed. In calculating the probability of an accident, the model takes into account causal relationships between the events affecting it, including the possibility of an accident with a wagon with a hazmat due to the occurrence of an accident with another wagon with a hazmat. Model allows to evaluate the unreliability of each wagon with hazmat separately and build a function of unreliability over time, which will provide an opportunity to assess in detail the risk of accidents with hazmat at the switchyards.
Authors and Affiliations
D. M. Chekhunov
Keywords
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- EP ID EP498110
- DOI 10.18664/ikszt.v0i1.126274
- Views 142
- Downloads 0
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