INFLUENCE OF MAIN TELECONNECTIONS OF THE NORTH HEMISPHERE ON REGIME OF PRECIPITATION ON THE TERRITORY OF UKRAINE
Journal Title: Вісник Одеського національного університету. Географічні та геологічні науки - Year 2017, Vol 22, Issue 1
Abstract
Problem Statement and Purpose. Since the atmospheric circulation is the main manifestation of climate change as covering all components of weather conditions is of interest to investigate the effect of this constitutive of climate factor on the formation fields of precipitation in the Euro-Mediterranean region due to global climate change. The purpose of this article is to determine the impact of major Northern Hemisphere teleconnections the regime of precipitation on the territory of Ukraine in the winter season using physical-statistical approach. Data & Methods. To study the relationship between climate parameters in the western part of the Eurasian continent used series of monthly sums of precipitation (December, January, February) at 30 weather stations Ukraine, evenly spaced on its territory, climate NAO index and climate NCP index for the period 1976-2005. The implementation of tasks using the component and correlation analysis, research methods and statistical structure of non-stationary time series. Results. Results of the study impact of major Northern Hemisphere teleconnections on precipitation regime on the territory of Ukraine in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, which made for long-term data indicate ambiguity of these processes in different seasons. With component analysis performed random fields parameterization monthly rainfall in 30 stations of Ukraine for the period 1976-2005 years. Perennial field were presented two (three) uncorrelated parameters (major components) linearly connected components of the original vector and therefore are generalized characteristics of rainfall during the winter season for the whole territory of Ukraine. Provided ≥ 70% in January, the first two eigenvalues (two eigenvectors and two major components) 71.6% of the total exhaust dispersion field precipitation in December and February – the first three (respectively 70.8% and 71.2%). Time Series Analysis Principal Component possible to determine the interannual variability of component long-time – 3-5 years in December and February and 5-9 years – in January. Also since the 90s trend to increase rainfall in Ukraine in January and February; in December – on the contrary. We believe that this trend will continue until 2020. The impact of the North Caspian Marine fluctuations (PMKK) on the formation of precipitation winter season in Ukraine has close (mainly inverse) linear correlation and only state in December PMKK sees a direct correlation with the regime of precipitation in January in our countries. The value of pair correlation coefficients indicate statistically significant (P = 90%) tight line (direct and inverse) correlation between monthly rainfall in Ukraine in the winter season with the North Atlantic oscillation. In the central month of the winter season dominated by the positive phase PMKK – in the western pole PMKK (waters of the North Sea) was observed strengthening anticyclonic circulation and increased cyclonic activity that resulted in a northeast movement of air masses in Central Europe. The statistical time series structure NAO index in January indicates a predominance of positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation in this period, which contributed to expansion of the Icelandic low and the Azores high, and this situation leads to increased zonal circulation.
Authors and Affiliations
L. D. Goncharova, N. I. Kosolapova
Keywords
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