INTERACTIVE COMPUTER MODEL FOR AURORA FORECAST AND ANALYSIS
Journal Title: Solar-Terrestrial Physics - Year 2022, Vol 8, Issue 2
Abstract
An interactive computer model of a short-term (with a horizon 30–70 min) forecast of aurora intensity has been developed in the form of a web-based geoinformation system. The OVATION-Prime empirical model is used as the basic software, which establishes statistical relationships between parameters of the solar wind, the interplanetary magnetic field, and auroral particle fluxes. On the basis of this model, a system has been built which simulates the spatial planetary distribution of the probability of observing auroras and a number of accompanying quantities. Data visualization is carried out on the basis of the virtual globe technology and is provided to the end user via a specialized web service. The forecast has been verified by comparing the model predictions with the data from 16 cameras conducting continuous observations of the auroras in the visible spectrum. The proportion of coincidences between the predicted and observed auroras was 86 %. The developed service enables both forecasting and analysis of past events. The system allows us to compare the spatial distribution of probability of auroras with railway transport systems for the territory of the Russian Federation.
Authors and Affiliations
Vorobev A. V. , Soloviev A. A. , Pilipenko V. A. , Vorobeva G. R.
LONG-LIVED METEOR TRAILS
The paper presents data on long-lived (~20–40 min) meteor trails. We describe a group of soliton-type meteor trails expanding at transonic speeds. Radio sounding data evidences that the latter include ~7–8 min ionization...
MICROWAVE INDICATOR OF POTENTIAL GEOEFFECTIVENESS AND MAGNETIC FLUX-ROPE STRUCTURE OF A SOLAR ACTIVE REGION
We analyze the presence of a microwave neutral-line-associated source (NLS) in a super-active region NOAA 12673, which produced a number of geo-effective events in September 2017. To estimate the NLS position, we use dat...
FORCE BALANCE IN CURRENT SHEETS IN COLLISIONLESS PLASMA
In this paper, we derive a divergent form of the force balance equation for collisionless plasma in the quasineutrality approximation, in which the electric field and current density are excluded. For a stationary spatia...
INFLUENCE OF THE ß SOLAR WIND PARAMETER ON STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AP INDEX IN THE SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLE
We have studied the effect of the β solar wind parameter (equal to the ratio of the plasma pressure to the magnetic pressure) on statistical characteristics of the Ap index reflecting the triggering behavior of the activ...
DETERMINATION OF ELF WAVE CHARACTERISTICS MOST STRONGLY REACTING TO MINOR CHANGES OF IONOSPHERIC ELECTRON DENSITY IN A HIGH-LATITUDE REGION
In this paper, we use numerical experiment methods to address the problem of determining characteristics of ELF (0.3–3 kHz) electromagnetic waves recorded in the surface layer and providing the maximum amount of informat...