Is it possible to predict financial failure with limited data? Ran Logistics Corp. Case<p>Finansal başarısızlık tahmini kısıtlı veri ile mümkün mü? Lojistik Sektöründen bir örnek: Ran Lojistik Hizmetleri A.Ş
Journal Title: Journal of Human Sciences - Year 2016, Vol 13, Issue 3
Abstract
Young and newly listed firms who bankrupt more likely in 5 years, have limited historical records. Assessing financial failure risks and predicting bankruptcies is essential for investors and creditors to with data that limited to time. In this study, Ran Lojistik Corporation, who realized financial failure, is analyzed by failure risk prediction models and traditional financial methods. We determined the earliest time period of first abnormal signals by examining overall models and methods. According to our findings Altman Z-score predicts failure from the first quarter but does not signal for a specific quarter. Shirata Z-score is not worked to predict, also accounting betas that we estimate do not signal itself but used for overall examination. We obtained the signalled quarters by traditional methods’ examination. Overall, we considered all the methods and models together and determined the appearance of many anomalies is in 2011/6. ÖzetBirçok genç şirket ilk 5 yıl içerisinde iflas noktasına gelmektedir ve borsaya yeni kote olan şirketlerin de halka açık verileri en çok 3 yıl geriye gitmektedir. Bu durum yatırımcılar ve kredi verenlerin kısıtlı veri ile finansal başarısızlık riskinin hesaplanması ve finansal sıkışıklık tahminlemelerini güçleştirmektedir. Çalışmada, finansal başarısızlık yaşamış olan Ran Lojistik AŞ. farklı finansal başarısızlık riski modelleri ve geleneksel yöntemlerle analiz edilerek verilere ilişkin ilk anormal sinyallerin alındığı dönem belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Bulgularımıza göre, klasik tahmin modellerinin yanı sıra mali tablolar da analiz edilerek bir değerlendirme yapıldığında iflası işaret eden dönemler belirlenebilmektedir. 2011/6 dönemi birçok anomalinin ortaya çıktığı bir dönem olarak belirlenmiştir.
Authors and Affiliations
İbrahim Emre Karaa
Keywords
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