J-Curve Effect on Turkey’s Foreign Trade Balance
Journal Title: Journal of the Human and Social Science Researches - Year 2016, Vol 5, Issue 3
Abstract
According to J-Curve Theory, an increase in exchange rates causes a decrease in trade balance in the short run and then causes to increase in it. Although there are a lot of studies in this subject, the asymmetrical relationships among macroeconomic variables have been mostly ignored. In this study, Turkey’s foreign trade balance was analyzed by the symmetric and asymmetric models. For this propose two models were constructed by using monthly and quarterly data. According to the results of the analyses based on quarterly data, there is neither cointegration among variables nor J-Curve phenomenon. But according to the results of the model which is based on monthly data, there is symmetric relationship in the short run and asymmetric relationship and cointegration in the long run. By the estimation of using both monthly and quarterly data there is no J-Curve effect. As a result, using monthly data in the estimation of short-run phenomenon of J-Curve which is expected to exist only at short run gives more healthy results.
Authors and Affiliations
Hüseyin KARAMELIKLI| Yrd. Doç. Dr., Karabük Üniversitesi, İİBF huseyinkaramelikli@karabuk.edu.tr
Keywords
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