Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Returns Revisited
Journal Title: Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Studies - Year 2020, Vol 3, Issue 10
Abstract
I revisit the relation between macroeconomic activities and stock prices by selecting the most important macroeconomic variables that are appropriate for analyzing their impact on stock returns. Using vector autogressive models (VAR), combined with co integration analysis and the vector error correction model (VECM) I estimate the explanatory power of each macroeconomic variable on the variations of the stock prices and distinguish the short-run from long-run movements among all key macroeconomic variables. I find that (1) in the short-run macroeconomic variables do not appear help explain changes in stock returns, (2) in the long-run the real interest rate and industrial production are the most important macroeconomic factors, and (3) in the long-term the real economic activity and stock returns Granger-cause each other.
Authors and Affiliations
Feifei Wang
Keywords
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- EP ID EP691391
- DOI 10.47191/jefms/v3-i10-03
- Views 182
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