Markups in the branches of the Polish food sector as business cycle predictors
Journal Title: Roczniki Naukowe Stowarzyszenia Ekonomistów Rolnictwa i Agrobiznesu - Year 2016, Vol 18, Issue 4
Abstract
The main objective of the paper was to check if and which monopolistic markups of 29 Polish food sector branches can be regarded as potential predictors of business cycle changes. Markups were measured based on a non-overhead labour input margin, whereas the business cycle was considered on the three levels of branch, sector and the whole economy, with following indicators: value of production for the first two, and GDP for the macro cycle. Research methods were panel regressions and cross-correlations. In the analysed period 2000-2013 markups were countercyclical regarding macro cycle and procyclical regarding sectorial and branch cycles. Changes in market structures of 10 Polish food sector branches could be used as predictors for the macro business cycle, and of 6 – for the sectorial business cycle.<br/><br/>
Authors and Affiliations
Justyna Kufel-Gajda
Keywords
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- EP ID EP384166
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