MATHEMATICAL METHODS OF DECISION MAKING IN AUTOTECHNICAL EXPERTISE OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS

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MATHEMATICAL METHODS OF DECISION MAKING IN AUTOTECHNICAL EXPERTISE OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS

Journal Title: Автомобильный транспорт - Year 2018, Vol 43, Issue

Abstract

Problem. Ensuring the safe operation of automotive technology is an urgent problem for many countries of the world. A large reserve in solving the problem of accidents in road transport is to improve the ac-curacy and objectivity of methods of analyzing traffic accident, identifying cause-effect relationships. Modern forensic engineering expertise requires the use of methods and technologies that provide not only the necessary accuracy of the calculations, but also allow comprehensively investigating the mech-anism of traffic accidents. Despite the existence of a large amount of methodological literature and rec-ommendations for investigating this category of cases, the problems of traffic accident examination that existed previously exist in Ukraine now, despite the best technical equipment, the introduction of specialization of investigators and the improvement of their training. Goal. The goal of the work is to formulate ways to improve the existing and build new methods for solving the problems of autotech-nical expertise of traffic accidents to improve the accuracy of calculations and the categorical nature of expert conclusions. Methodology. The methodo-logical basis of the work is the use of a systematic approach and analysis as a method of scientific knowledge to identify the causes of difficulties in applying mathematical methods that are traditional-ly used to solve the problems of autotechnical exper-tise of traffic accidents, and formulate ways to over-come them. Results. The main difficulties in solving the problems of autotechnical expertise of traffic accidents are due to the fact that an objective deci-sion on the causes of the accident must be carried out in conditions of incomplete information that is in the conditions of uncertainty. In the absence of the possibility of using traditional mathematical methods based on identifying precise quantitative relationships, it is advisable to use approximate modeling methods based on fuzzy (continuous) logics (for example, the theory of fuzzy sets and lin-guistic variables) to investigate accidents under uncertainty. To increase the level of accuracy of calculations and categorical conclusions of expert analysis of accidents, methods should be used based on interpolation models, and models of extrapola-tion and probabilistic nature should be used as a source of versions of accidents. Originality. The sys-tematic approach is given to substantiate the choice of methods for investigating emergency situations to improve the accuracy of calculations and the cate-gorical nature of expert conclusions. Practical value. The ways of improving the methods of substanti-ating decisions in autotechnical expertise of accidents determined in research work can improve its level of effectiveness based on the use of modern innovative technologies.

Authors and Affiliations

A. Kashkanov

Keywords

automobile traffic safety traffic accident autotechnical expertise mathematical methods decision making

EP ID EP456159
DOI 10.30977/АТ.2219-8342.2018.43.0.78
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