MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS
Journal Title: Revista Romana de Statistica - Year 2010, Vol 58, Issue 7
Abstract
The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explore the predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) method and process within Higher Education Institution (HEI). The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100) risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province. The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (King III report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004) that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model) was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood of occurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made), the property impact (students and infrastructural based) and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary depending on the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University) was within the period of one academic. The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysis should be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.
Authors and Affiliations
Anass BAYAGA
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP139778
- DOI -
- Views 150
- Downloads 0
Pension Calculation Models in European Social Security Systems
An often discussed theme is the pensions’ calculation formula. Even if there is no magical formula, the problem to choose the social insurance model through a software depending a series of system parameters. The analy...
ON THE CAUSAL LINKS BETWEEN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA, 1970-2008: AN APPLICATION OF GRANGER CAUSLITY AND CO-INTEGRATION TECHNIQUES
This paper examines the causal links between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Nigeria during the period 1970-2008. The authors employed the Granger causality and Johansen co-integration techniques to anal...
Views Regarding the Purchase of Goods Necessary to Keep the Lower Education Functioning
The purchase of goods meant to assure the functioning of lower education establishments in the best conditions, of the educational process in accordance with the legal requirements of our country are followed conforming...
Impact of EU funds absorption in ensuring macro stability
Vienna Initiative aims to ensure that the process of deleveraging to be controlled and successful one, to minimize systemic risks of emerging Europe. Strengthening cooperation between countries of origin and host countri...
Determinants of Labor Force Potential in Romania
In this research study there were applied Multinomial Logistic Regression models to examine the socio-economic factors that were responsible conducting individuals to be part of the employment or not. As a result of the...