MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS
Journal Title: Revista Romana de Statistica - Year 2010, Vol 58, Issue 7
Abstract
The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explore the predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) method and process within Higher Education Institution (HEI). The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100) risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province. The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (King III report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004) that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model) was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood of occurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made), the property impact (students and infrastructural based) and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary depending on the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University) was within the period of one academic. The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysis should be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.
Authors and Affiliations
Anass BAYAGA
Keywords
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