МЕТОДИЧНІ ЗАСАДИ СЦЕНАРНОГО ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ РОЗВИТКУ АГРОПРОМИСЛОВОГО КОМПЛЕКСУ РЕГІОНУ
Journal Title: Вісник Харківського національного аграрного університету ім. В.В. Докучаєва Серія “Економічні науки” - Year 2017, Vol 1, Issue 4
Abstract
Rogatina L. Methodological approaches to creating of scenario forecasting for development of region agricultural complex. In the article the methodical approaches to the construction of scenario forecasts are considered, the methodical tools of scenario forecasting of development of agro-industrial complex in the region are improved. It is proved that in the current conditions, the creation of various scenarios for the development of the branches of the economy is an effective forecasting method that allows modeling strategic decisions and investigating their influence on the development of the national economy in different situations. Formation of scenarios is carried out at the stage of justification of the strategy of socio-economic development of the region, or it can be used as a tool for testing and improving the strategy already developed. The algorithm of scenario designing, which combines econometric, index and expert forecasting methods in a single calculation model, allows estimating the forecast scenarios of the forecasting object development under various forecasts of change of exogenous influence factors was developed. The system of strategic measures that need to be implemented at the regional level in different variants of forecasting scenarios is substantiated. This tool will allow not only to carry out forecasting but also to influence the state and behavior of the object of forecasting in the future. Using the proposed scenario forecasting method will improve the system of strategic management of the region, increase the economic efficiency of the development of the agro-industrial complex and increase the level of controllability and predictability of strategic processes. The author's methodological recommendations for improving scenario forecasting of the industry development can be used to construct forecasts of the development of any sector of a regional economy, type of economic activity, product or service. Key words: scenario forecasting, agro-industrial complex, index method, macro-environment factors, expert methods, scenarios.
Authors and Affiliations
Л. П. Рогатіна
Keywords
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