Modeling and prognosing the product life cycle on the basis of S-like curve
Journal Title: Маркетинг і цифрові технології - Year 2017, Vol 1, Issue 1
Abstract
The aim of the article is to simulate the product life cycle using `S`-like mathematical functions and to predict the most important key points of these curves: maximum value, inflection point, when the accelerated growth of sales changes to slowing one, as well as the elasticity coefficients of the `S`-like functions. The results of the analysis. The success of any simulation essentially depends on the correct choice of mathematical functions which would correspond to the inner nature of the study object. Five `S`-like mathematical functions were selected for the analysis, which, under certain conditions, can be used to simulate and predict the product life cycle. Their main approximation properties are considered in order to provide practical calculations in the process of planning innovations at an industrial enterprise. The trigonometric function monotonically fluctuates around the Y axis; there are no horizontal and vertical asymptotes. It is recommended for simulating and predicting the product life cycle when planning the introduction of innovative products. A function opposite to the hyperbolic exponent has two horizontal asymptotes and can be used to simulate and predict any product life cycle. Exponential functions can be used to simulate and predict life-cycles that are avalanche-like or inhibited. The logistic function (inverse to the modified exponent) or the Pearl-Reed curve has two horizontal asymptotes and can be used to model and predict processes that are slowly rising or falling. The Gompertz function also has two horizontal asymptotes but allows simulation and prediction of more rapid processes than the Pearl-Reed curve. The life cycle of the product of meat processing enterprises is analyzed according to these models, and the price elasticity of demand for it is determined. Conclusions and direction for further research. The use of simulation and prediction methods of product life cycle using `S`-like functions makes it possible to optimize the strategic plan of an industrial enterprise and make timely, reasonable decisions in the following areas: increasing production volume; carrying out additional measures to stimulate sales; updating the product range. In further research it is important to determine the specifics of the use of `S`-shaped curves for products novelties from various industries.
Authors and Affiliations
Olexander Iankovyi, Olga Hura
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP246647
- DOI 10.15276/mdt.1.1.2017.5
- Views 169
- Downloads 0
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