Modeling ARIMA of air temperature of the southern Caspian Sea coasts
Journal Title: International Research Journal of Applied and Basic Sciences - Year 2012, Vol 3, Issue 6
Abstract
The main purpose of time series analysis is to find a best fit to a data set that can be defined by a model that can be used for forecasting. In this paper, air temperature of the Caspian southern coasts was modeled by SARIMA or seasonal Autoregressive integrated moving average. A preliminary exploratory analysis of the monthly mean air temperatures of the Anzali, Ramsar and Babolsar synoptic stations was done to detect extreme values, homogeneity, step and monotonic trends. Then, each series was analyzed by a multiplicative decomposition method and the main components of the time series, namely trend (trt), and cyclical (clt), seasonal (snt) and irregular (random) changes (irt) were determined. Then model was performed and temperature was predicted. In preparation of the time series to be used in ARIMA model, the time series were transformed to normal and stationary series using Box-Cox and Differencing method. After selection of some suitable models and estimation of parameters by maximum likelihood method, independence and normality of model residuals ( t a ) should were considered to accuracy of data. Then Akaike information criteria (AIC) and (SBC) determined the best model: SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 for Anzali and Babolsar and SARIMA (0,0,2)(0,1,1)12 for Ramsar mean monthly temperature. Temperature at all stations was predicted with a high accuracy, in comparison with the actual data in two years 2005 and 2006 as the gauge by SARIMA model and multiplicative decomposition method. Correlation coefficient between the actual and fitted data was nearly 0.97 and the absolute and relative errors were very small.
Authors and Affiliations
Elias Khajavi| Department of Soil Science, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran, Jalal Behzadi| Department of Agriculture, Lahijan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Lahijan, Iran, M. Taher Nezami| Department of Soil science, Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran, Alireza Ghodrati| Faculty member of Agriculture and Natural Resources Research Center of Guiln, Mohammad Ali Dadashi| Faculty member of Agriculture and Natural Resources Research Center of Guiln
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP5045
- DOI -
- Views 395
- Downloads 23
Curriculum Evaluation earned Islamic Thought Islamic Azad University Khorasgan Branch
The purpose of the present study is to Evaluate the Attained curriculum Islamic thoughts (1) in Islamic Azad University, Khorasgan Branch. This study is of descriptive - survey method. The statistical universe of the stu...
Relationship between relationship quality (RQ) and customer loyalty (Case Study: Refah stores of Rasht)
Customer loyalty can have many advantages to the stores which the most important of them includes reduction in advertising and related costs to attract new customers. Various factors influence the customer loyalty. But w...
The effect of organizing viewpoints on quality promotion of environment with approach of reinforcing urban landscape Case study: lands of North of Kish Island
Viewpoint is an arena or three dimensional areas that starts in a point and extends towards an index subject or a visual quality. It seems that organizing viewpoint areas toward specific urban signs has a considerable im...
Parametric and Two Dimensional Study of seismic behavior of micropile Group in Sandy Soils
This paper examines the effects of acceleration amplitude of harmonic seismic load and damping ratio on seismic behavior ofmicropile group. A two dimensionalfinite element model and plain strain in Plaxis software have b...
Analyzing legally and religiously aspects of marriage dissolution in Iran legal system
The aim of marriage dissolution is the end of couple relation though this theory which the partly marriage would be dismissed by the end of marriage time, it is not correct, because in partly marriage the couple relation...