Modeling of dengue occurrences early warning involving temperature and rainfall factors
Journal Title: Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Disease - Year 2017, Vol 7, Issue 7
Abstract
Objective: To understand dengue transmission process and its vector dynamics and to develop early warning model of dengue occurrences based on mosquito population and host-vector threshold values considering temperature and rainfall. Methods: To obtain the early warning model, mosquito population and host-vector models are developed initially. Both are developed using differential equations. Basic offspring number (R0m) and basic reproductive ratio (R0d) which are the threshold values are derived from the models under constant parameters assumption. Temperature and rainfall effects on mosquito and dengue are performed in entomological and disease transmission parameters. Some of parameters are set as functions of temperature or rainfall while other parameters are set to be constant. Hereafter, both threshold values are computed using those parameters. Monthly dengue occurrences data are categorized as zero and one values which one means the outbreak does occur in that month. Logistics regression is chosen to bridge the threshold values and categorized data. Threshold values are considered as the input of early warning model. Semarang city is selected as the sample to develop this early waning model. Results: The derived threshold values which are R0m and R0d show to have relation that mosquito as dengue vector affects transmission of the disease. Result of the early warning model will be a value between zero and one. It is categorized as outbreak does occur when the value is larger than 0.5 while other is categorized as outbreak does not occur. By using single predictor, the model can perform 68% accuracy approximately. Conclusions: The extinction of mosquitoes will be followed by disease disappearance while mosquitoes existence can lead to disease free or endemic states. Model simulations show that mosquito population are more affected by weather factors than human. Involving weather factors implicitly in the threshold value and linking them with disease occurrences can be considered in order to perform an early warning model.
Authors and Affiliations
Prama Setia Putra, Nuning Nuraini
Keywords
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- EP ID EP194774
- DOI 10.12980/apjtd.7.2017D7-26
- Views 159
- Downloads 0
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