Climate change impact on food security of rural households in Gibaish locality of West Kordofan State, Sudan
Journal Title: Scientia Agriculturae - Year 2016, Vol 14, Issue 2
Abstract
The current study focused on the linkage between climate change and food security of rural households in Gibaish locality. The overall objective was to explore the level of food security and impacts of climate change variables on the food security of rural households. Gibaish locality is located in the western part of the state with an estimated population of 929758 persons. The area is occupied by arid agro-climatic zone. Multistage-stratified random sampling technique was used to select 70 households. Data were obtained from both primary and secondary sources and analyzed using descriptive statistics, household economy approach, linear programming, partial crop budget, dominance analysis, marginal analysis, sensitivity analysis, linear regression and correlation coefficients analysis. The household’s economy approach for the daily energy received per person per day in K. calories was calculated being 2105. With respect to WHO minimum rate of 2300 K. calories per person per day, this results implies that the household is marginally food insecure. Linear programming results indicated that the maximum combination that maximizing farmer’s income was reached by millet, groundnut and okra with a total SDG 11,148. When taking into consideration the household’s food consumption behavior it was found that increase over decrease was lesser by 184%. These results ensured that the proportional combination of the food items consumed at local level would not enable the households to meet their minimum energy requirement for a healthy and active life. It is also noted that climatic variation in year 2013 cropping season has negative impact on food security situation. Partial crop budget revealed that all cops gave positive net returns. While groundnut and okra gave maximum net benefits of SDG2056 and SDG 1380, respectively. Dominance analysis showed that T2 (Gum Arabic) and T5 (Roselle) were dominated due to their lower net field benefits as compared to other treatments. Results of marginal analysis founded that maximum marginal rate of return of 13733.4% was obtained by T4 (groundnut). It is noted that farmers with poor resources can accomplish and return SDG 1.00 benefits by sowing the groundnut to obtain additional SDG 137.3. Sensitivity analysis that assumed costs over run and benefits shortfall revealed that groundnut and sorghum was highly MRR of 12,484.9, 12,360 and 537.9 and 532.5, respectively. Linear regression ensured that maximum average temperature statistically and significantly affected millet production at five percent from zero level with goodness of fit 13%. Whoever other food production crops don’t impacted by climatic factors. Correlation coefficients showed increasing temperature and rainfall fluctuation is reported as major threats to food production. Sorghum was negatively (-0.705, p=0.01) correlated with time and growing period, millet moderately correlated with time (-0.494). However sesame, groundnut, Roselle, cowpea and watermelon were weakly and negatively correlated with time. Consequently millet (-0.385), sorghum (-0.128), sesame (-0.266), groundnut (-0.185), Roselle (0.242), cowpea (0.185) and watermelon (0.034) were not significant and it has negative and positive minimum correlation with average maximum temperature. Study concluded further research and studies on climate change hazard should be encouraged in the study area.
Authors and Affiliations
Elkhalil E. Breima, Abdelaziz A. Elshiekh, Fathi H. Balldo, Maruod E. Maruod
Keywords
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- EP ID EP90730
- DOI 10.15192/PSCP.SA.2016.14.2.228233
- Views 174
- Downloads 0
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