NEKI TEHNIČKO EKONOMSKI ASPEKTI PRUGA ZA VELIKE BRZINE - SOME TECHNICAL ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF HIGH RAILWAY SP
Journal Title: EMC Review: Časopis za ekonomiju i tržišne komunikacije - Year 2016, Vol 6, Issue 1
Abstract
Many countries investment and building high speed rail (HSR) infrastructurebecouse produces social benefi ts and costs. The potential benefi ts are basically time savings,higher reliability, comfort, safety and the release of capacity in the conventional rail network,enviromental roads and airport infrastructure. The costs are high, and sunk in a signifi cantproportion; therefore, the social profi tability of the project requires that HSR users’ and otherbenefi ciaries’ willingness to pay is high enough to compensate the sunk and variable costs ofmaintaining and operating the line plus any other external cost during construction andproject life. Problem for our country, is number of passengers to justify a new high speed line. It is veryvariable, ranging from 3 millions to 17 millions in the first year of operation under possibleassumptions examined, but typically even under favourable conditions at least 9 millionspassengers per annum will be needed. The economic evaluation of long-lived infrastructurerequires a careful construction of the contrafactual and there are many assumptions thatmight seriously bias the results. This is the case of transport pricing during the lifespan of theproject. Pricing policy needs to be explicitly treated. Danas u svetu veliki broj zemalja ima u eksploataciji pruge za velike brzine, gradenove i/ili vrše rekonstrukciju postojećih pruga jer vide stimulans za razvoj svojih država sveu skladu sa međunarodnim i domaćim sporazumima i dokumentima (AGC/AGCT, ETCS,GSM-R mrežama, SEECP, SEETO, Strategijom saobraćaja Republike, Master planom, Akcionimplanom). Ukupna dužina pruga za velike brzine u svetu iznosi preko 20000 km. Evropau 2014 raspolaže sa 11419 km, pod rekonstrukcijom 6330 km, planirano je do 2020godine daljih 6321 km što ukupno iznosi 24070 km. Procenjuje se, da će do 2025 godine usvetu biti preko 45000 km pruga za velike brzine. Reč je o prugama za tzv. „InterCity RailPassenger Service“ putnički i uslovno pogodnim za teretni saobraćaj. Pod pokroviteljstvomUICa, železničkih uprava i drugih organizacija, svake godine se širom sveta organizujukonferencije vezane za pruge velikih brzina na kojima se mogu videti iskustava i dalje perspektiverazvoja.Osnovni problem pruga za velike brzine nije tehnološki, već ekonomski, koji se ogleda u vrlovisokim troškovima gradnje infrastrukture. Na koridorima sa nedovoljnim brojem putnikaodnosno niskom gustinom saobraćaja, troškovi po putniku su izuzetno visoki, koji ne dajufi nansijsku stabilnost i ekonomsku opravdanost izvodljivim jer investicije imaju sumnjivkarakter. Ključno pitanje je, da li su očekivane prednosti veće od troškova gradnje i eksploatacijeu prugu za velike brzine, odnosno da li država želi takvu prugu i da li je spremna dai dalje plaća subvencije železnici. U daljem radu biće date neke činjenice koji mogu uticatina konačnu odluku gradnje.
Authors and Affiliations
Branko Davidović, Milivoje Vuković
Keywords
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- EP ID EP247392
- DOI 10.7251/EMC16109D
- Views 111
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