ON HOW TO CALCULATE DISASTER RISK METRICS IN THE PRESENCE OF UNCERTAINTY
Journal Title: Научно-практический журнал "Проблемы анализа риска" - Year 2016, Vol 13, Issue 5
Abstract
At performance of analysis and quantification of the risk of disaster there is a need to take into account the presence of uncertainty оf many task parameters. Without the involvement of hypotheses about the behavior of the parameter within the range of its possible changes that can be done by setting these parameters as intervals, and the fulfillment of all required calculations by interval methods. Disaster risk calculations of conditional dangerous object are made in the article by six methods: two – point and four – interval. Point calculations are made: a) in the conservative, and b) averaged statement. Interval calculations are performed as a natural (naive), and the other three methods, with the adoption of measures to narrow the result of interval calculations. Given that emergency risk should estimate as the amount of damage caused by the accident, and the probability of its occurrence, there is provided a method of reducing the width of the interval of this metric. The proposed method can be used only if reliable information is at hand about the behavior of the parameter values within intervals of their changes.
Authors and Affiliations
E. Y. Kolesnikov, V. Kolodkin
Keywords
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- EP ID EP621872
- DOI 10.32686/1812-5220-2016-13-5-20-34
- Views 133
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