ПАНІКА ВКЛАДНИКІВ: КОМПАРАТИВНИЙ АНАЛІЗ КРАЇН ЄС ТА УКРАЇНИ
Journal Title: Вісник Академії праці, соціальних відносин і туризму - Year 2018, Vol 3, Issue
Abstract
The purpose of the study is to find out the trends in the dynamics of bank deposits in the EU and Ukraine for 2007 - 2016 and develop approaches to determining the intensity of deposits withdrawal. The study was carried out using mathematical and statistical methods. Data for calculating indicators of the deposits are the annual data of the International Monetary Fund, which indicate the financial stability of the banking sector. The dynamics of deposits in EU countries (Germany, France and countries that have received EU membership relatively recently: the Baltic States, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria) and Ukraine are analyzed in the study. The analysis was carried on the basis of indicators such as the share of deposits in banks’ liabilities, the ratio of deposits to non-deposit liabilities of banks, the ratio of deposits to banks’ capital in the course of 2006-2017. The study reveals the Ukrainian banks have the same trends as the banks of the majority of new EU members in the first two indicators: the growth of the deposits role in the formation of bank resources and, accordingly, the predominance of deposit on non-deposit liabilities. In addition, the banks of all analyzed countries responded to the global financial crisis by reducing the growth rate of deposits, and in some countries – by their negative values, in particular Ukraine had the highest rates of deposits withdrawal. The approach to assessing the intensity of depositors’ panic, based on the concept of scoring with the possibility of using one-factor (the growth rate of deposit volumes) and a two-factor model (the rate of increase in deposit volumes and the ratio of deposits to banks’ capital) is proposed. The application of the proposed approach to assessing the intensity of the depositors’ panic has made it possible to establish that a one-factor model is adequate. Thus, the depositors panic could be unambiguously identified in Ukraine from three analyzed countries as Germany, Croatia and Ukraine. Prospects for further research may be, firstly, a deeper analysis of deposits in terms of borrowers types, since depositors panic are more closely associated with withdrawal of the population deposits; and secondly, the search for approaches to an adequate calculation of the deposits indicators taking into account the level of their dollarization.
Authors and Affiliations
Nataliia Versal, Yana Ovsiannykova
Keywords
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