Potential impact of global warming on river runoff coming to Jor reservoir, Malaysia by integration of LARS-WG with artificial neural networks
Journal Title: Environmental Health Engineering and Management Journal - Year 2019, Vol 6, Issue 2
Abstract
Background: Changes in temperature and precipitation pattern seriously affect the amount of river runoff coming into Dam Lake. These changes could influence the operating conditions of reservoir systems such as Jor hydropower reservoir system (Malaysia) with the total capacity of 150 MW. So, it is necessary to analyze the effect of changes in weather parameters on the river runoff and consequently, the hydropower production. Methods: In this research, LARS-WG was used to downscale the weather parameters such as daily minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation based on one of the general circulation sub-model (HADCM3) under three emission scenarios, namely, A1B, A2, and B1 for the next 50 years. Then, the artificial neural network (ANN) was constructed, while rainfall and evapotranspiration were used as input data and river runoff as output data to discover the relationship between climate parameters and runoff at the present and in the future time. Results: It was revealed that the monthly mean temperature will increase approximately between 0.3- 0.7°C, while the mean monthly precipitation will vary from -22% to +22% in the next 50 years. These changes could shift the dry and wet seasons and consequently, change the river runoff volume. In most months, the results of models integration showed reductions in river runoff. Conclusion: It can be concluded that the output of hydropower reservoir system is highly dependent on the river runoff. So, the impacts of climate changes should be considered by the reservoir operators/ managers to reduce these impacts and secure water supplies.
Authors and Affiliations
Aida Tayebiyan1* , Thamer Ahmad Mohammad2 , Mohammad Malakootian1,3 , Alireza Nasiri1 , Mohammad Reza Heidari4 , Ghazal Yazdanpanah1
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP45475
- DOI https://doi.org/10.15171/EHEM.2019.16
- Views 312
- Downloads 1
Single and competitive adsorption of Cu2+ and Pb2+ by tea pulp from aqueous solutions
Background: Removal of heavy metals by bioadsorbents is one of the effective and inexpensive methods for water and wastewater treatment. The aim of this study was to investigate the ability of tea pulp in order to remove...
Moisture-proof masks as a potential source to prevent COVID-19 during the rainy season
This article has no abstract
Techno-economic assessment of recycling acidic sludge project of reprocessing industries to value-added gaseous products using Plasmatron
Background: Plasmatron is a hydrocarbon reformer of fuels and heavy oil sludge with high efficiency in gasification operation. The gasification of acidic sludge (AS) was investigated to assess the technical and financi...
Seasonal variations of heavy metals concentrations and pollution assessment of major dumpsites in Ilisan-Remo, Nigeria
Background: Globally, natural and anthropogenic activities have led to soil pollution resulting in physiological and health challenges on environment, plants, animals, and humans. The present study was conducted to det...
Membrane fouling mechanism of submerged membrane bioreactor during erythromycin removal
Background: Based on the previous studies, antibiotics can have affected biological properties of biomass and fouling properties of mixed liquor in aeration tank. The present study was conducted to explore the fouling...