Research of Causal Relations between Components of Foreign Trade and Economic Performance of the Region, Country and World
Journal Title: Проблеми економіки - Year 2016, Vol 2016, Issue 1
Abstract
Causal relations between components of the region foreign trade turnover and indicators, which characterize the economic situation of the region, country and the world, have been studied. 3 groups of indicators, which can have an impact on the region export-import activity, were formed by the degree of the covered influence level: the level of region, country and world. All the selected indicators were tested for causality by Granger test. As a result of the study it has been found that the export of Sumy region is directly affected by the volume of industrial production, inflation rate in Ukraine and the world price for wheat. The export of services is affected by the volume of extended credits, income of the population per person, the world prices for corn and wheat. Causality has also been determined between the import of goods in Sumy region and indicators of extended credits, turnover of retail trade and wholesale trade of enterprises. As regards the import of services, the influence was recorded from the side of the official exchange rate of hryvnia to the US dollar and the price index of industrial producers. The prospect of further research in this direction is expansion of the set of indicators characterizing the economic activity of the region, country and the world. The further research can contribute to building up the export-import potential of the region.
Authors and Affiliations
Sergey Frolov, Oksana Savytska
Keywords
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