Stock market indicators’ role in forecasting of economic crisis
Journal Title: Економічний журнал Одеського політехнічного університету - Year 2018, Vol 3, Issue 5
Abstract
The growth of the frequency and scale of economic crises actualizes the problems of their research and forecasting to minimize the negative effects and optimize the process of economic decision-making. Classical macroeconomic indicators can only state the fact of the crisis appearance with a great lag, which virtually prevents their use to obtain operational information on the state of the economy. At the same time, there are stock market indicators that are capable of generating signals about the state of the economy in real time. In this study, the author proposes the approach to frequency analysis of abnormal price fluctuations of stock market indicators as opposed to traditional macroeconomic indicators that respond to emerging economic crises with a long lag and have low prognostic properties. It has been proved that the frequency analysis of overreaction in the stock market can be used as a predictor of economic crises.
Authors and Affiliations
Oleksiy Plastun, Inna Makarenko
Keywords
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- EP ID EP564951
- DOI 10.5281/zenodo.2354567
- Views 123
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