Study of the impact of economic recovery programs 2001-2014 on the variables of foreign trade sector in Algeria "using forecasting and forecasting models"
Journal Title: مجلة البشائر الاقتصادية - Year 2015, Vol 1, Issue 2
Abstract
Development programs decisions implemented by agreement Programs Algeria mainly, its objective is to promote the national economy, and therefore aims at this subject the paper is to study important aspect of the program Alanvaqa launched by the Algerian state in the period between 2000 and 2012 , especially in the two objective programs of growth, support and complementary software to support growth, which is indicating the effect of this software spending power subject to a significant sector variables and sensitive and is the business sector outside, where we adopted in our study of this topic on time series and standard models for the study of the impact, and to achieve the study, we used Self-gradient models VAR modeling dynamic construction and forecasts, and after study shows that there is dynamic retroactive public expenditure on trade sector variables ex Algeria in this period, and predictions proved that the impact Hedda will continue in the medium term and therefore will have a positive impact growth in the foreign trade sector in particular, and general economic growth, especially since this programs heading have coincided and the global crisis in 2008 and, therefore show us the impact of this topic of development programs on foreign trade variables in two stages, namely the pre-crisis and post-emergence crisis and so should we test the impact of the global crisis on the variables of the Algerian economy.
Authors and Affiliations
Merrace Mohammed
Keywords
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